Race Ratings (2)

When deciding which factors to take into account when rating a race, it makes sense to concentrate on aspects of form which actually produce winners week in, week out. Above all, good recent form should play a central role in any rating system.

One simple way of discriminating between dogs in a race is to award points based on their current form. Here is a simple idea for rating a graded race:

Award 3 points for each win in the same grade as the current race in the last month.
Award 2 points for each second place in the same grade in the last month.
Award 1 point for each win in the grade below in the last month.

Let’s look at a typical race in A4 grade. Here are the dogs’ finishing positions in the last month, together with their points score:

Trap 1: Maid of Lorien 4th (A4); 2nd (A4); 5th (A4); 1st (A5). Points: 2
Trap 2: Shine Bright 1st (A4); 3rd (A4); 2nd (A4). Points: 5
Trap 3: Jane’s Heir 2nd (A4); 4th (A4); 6th (A3); 5th (A3). Points: 2
Trap 4: Firearm 4th (A4); 1st (A4); 1st (A4); 1st (A5). Points: 7
Trap 5: Miss Ballymoss 5th (A3); 4th (A3); 1st (A4); 3rd (A4). Points: 3
Trap 6: Ryans Choice 2nd (A4); 5th (A4); 6th (A4); 1st (A5). Points: 3

In this race Trap 4 comes out on top of the ratings, by virtue of two wins in A4 (6pts), and one win in A5 (1pt). An obvious problem is what to do about a dog that has only run once or twice in the last month. My advice is to add a plus sign (+) to its rating, to show that it may be capable of better.

A ratings plan based on current form can be used on its own, or can be combined with other winner-producing factors. Of these, the one that should be considered next is a dog’s basic speed, as measured by its performance against the clock. The important thing to remember here is that small variations in time between dogs in a graded race are, on their own, usually not significant. In greyhound racing one length is equal to 0.08 seconds (eight hundredths of a second). Minor differences in time between two dogs can easily be wiped out by a bump at the first bend. So using time alone to rate a race has its drawbacks. However, if a good time rating is backed up by a good current form rating, a dog’s chances are enhanced.

We’ll look again at the example above, and award points as follows:

Award 3 points to the dog with the fastest time in the last month in the current (or higher) grade.
Award 2 points to the dog with the second fastest time in the last month in the current (or higher) grade.
Award 1 point to the dog with the third fastest time in the current (or higher) grade

Trap 1: Maid of Lorien: 29.92 seconds (1 point)
Trap 2: Shine Bright: 29.79 seconds (3 points)
Trap 3: Janes Heir: 30.0 seconds
Trap 4: Firearm: 29.97 seconds
Trap 5: Miss Ballymoss: 29.84 seconds (2 points)
Trap 6: Ryans Choice: 30.14 seconds

If we combine the two factors – current form and time – we produce the following final ratings:

Trap 2: 8 points; Trap 4: 7 points: Trap 5: 5 points; Trap 6: 3 points; Trap 1: 3 points; Trap 3: 2 points

With only one point difference between the top two in the ratings, there is a strong case for selecting the dog whose odds offer the better value.

September 2018
Focus On Poole
 
August 2018
Focus On Perry Barr
 
July 2018
Focus On Nottingham
 
June 2018
Focus On Newcastle
 
May 2018
Focus On Monmore Green
 
April 2018
Focus On Hove
 
March 2018
Focus On Doncaster
 
February 2018
Focus On Crayford
 
January 2018
Focus On Central Park
 
December 2017
An Index Of Previous Blog Posts
 
November 2017
Focus On Belle Vue
 
October 2017
Young Graders To Follow (2)
 
September 2017
Young Graders To Follow
 
August 2017
Getting A Clear Run
 
July 2017
Essential Tools For Greyhound Betting (2)
 
June 2017
Essential Tools For Greyhound Betting (1)
 
May 2017
Specialisation (2)
 
April 2017
Specialisation (1)
 
March 2017
Qualities Of The Successful Backer
 
February 2017
Compiling Race Ratings (2)
 
January 2017
Compiling Race Ratings (1)
 
December 2016
Racecard Comments : S - X
 
November 2016
Racecard Comments : M - R
 
October 2016
Racecard Comments : H - M
 
September 2016
Racecard Comments : H
 
August 2016
Racecard Comments : E - H
 
July 2016
Racecard Comments : B - D
 
June 2016
Racecard Comments : A - B
 
May 2016
Form Cycles
 
April 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (3)
 
March 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (2)
 
February 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (1)
 
January 2016
The Striped jacket
 
December 2015
The Orange jacket
 
November 2015
The Black jacket
 
October 2015
The White jacket
 
September 2015
The Blue jacket
 
August 2015
The Red jacket
 
July 2015
Upgraded Dogs To Avoid
 
June 2015
Upgraded Dogs
 
May 2015
Downgraded Dogs
 
April 2015
Focus on Romford
 
March 2015
Focus on Swindon (2)
 
February 2015
Focus on Swindon (1)
 
January 2015
Exploiting Formline Comments (2)
 
December 2014
Exploiting Formline Comments (1)
 
November 2014
Greyhound Racing: Make It Pay (2)
 
October 2014
Greyhound Racing: Make It Pay (1)
 
September 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (6)
 
August 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (5)
 
July 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (4)
 
June 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (3)
 
May 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (2)
 
April 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (1)
 
March 2014
The Time Test
 
February 2014
Recording and Reviewing Your Bets
 
January 2014
What’s a "grade within a grade"? (2)
 
December 2013
What’s a "grade within a grade"? (1)
 
November 2013
Trap Draw
 
October 2013
Sires To Note
 
September 2013
Racing Post Summaries (3)
 
August 2013
Racing Post Summaries (2)
 
July 2013
Racing Post Summaries (1)
 
June 2013
Laying Greyhounds On The Betting Exchanges
 
May 2013
Spotting The Ungenuine Dog
 
April 2013
Compiling A List Of Greyhounds To Follow
 
March 2013
Specialisation (2)
 
February 2013
Specialisation (1)
 
January 2013
Winter Ground Conditions
 
December 2012
Front Runners v Strong Finishers
 
November 2012
Weight
 
October 2012
Identifying Improving Greyhounds
 
September 2012
Race Ratings (2)
 
August 2012
Race Ratings (1)
 
July 2012
Following dogs in form
 
June 2012
Adopting a professional approach (3)
 
May 2012
Adopting a professional approach (2)
 
April 2012
A Greyhound's Win / Lose Ratio
 
March 2012
Adopting a professional approach (1)
 
February 2012
Warning To Speed Fans
 
January 2012
Following Bitches After Seasonal Rest
 
December 2011
Early Paced Dogs
 
November 2011
Speed Handicapping (5) : More FAQs
 
October 2011
Speed Handicapping (4) : FAQs
 
September 2011
Speed Handicapping (3)
 
August 2011
Speed Handicapping (2)
 
July 2011
Speed Handicapping (1)
 
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