The White Jacket

A greyhound running from Trap 3, with two dogs on his (or her) inside and three on the outside, is in a vulnerable position so far as avoiding trouble is concerned. The situation is complicated by the fact that a dog’s preferred racing line is not always clear cut. When the racing manager is deciding on the structure of the race, he bases his decision on the preferred racing line of the dogs available to him, and in terms of those preferences there is often considerable overlap between adjacent traps. A dog may run equally well from Trap 2 or 3, or from Trap 3 or 4.

For the dog in the white jacket, the possibility of crowding is increased if the dog in blue is not a railer, but takes a rails-to-middle or middle racing line. And if the dog in Trap 4 alternates in his races between the white and black jackets, the likelihood of Trap 3 securing a clear run is further diminished.

So the first thing to check, when evaluating the chances of Trap 3, is to work out what effect the dogs on either side might have. Ideally, for the Trap 3 runner with early pace, the blue jacket will be a slow starting railer, and the black jacket a mid-to-wide runner that lacks early pace! Unfortunately that will usually fall into the category of wishful thinking, but any weaknesses in the profiles of the dogs in Traps 2 and 4 can be considered a bonus.

Given the inherent difficulty of securing a clear run from Trap 3, early pace is a huge advantage. If the dog is also quick away from the traps, so much the better. Leading at the first bend will considerably enhance his chances of success.

Look back at the previous form of Traps 2, 3 and 4, giving extra weight to the last four weeks’ formlines. How do their runs compare? For a Trap 3 runner, you would want to see comments such as QAw (Quick Away), EP (early pace), LdRnUp (Led Run Up), or Ld1 (Led at first bend). It would be better for Trap 3’s prospects if the comments on Traps 2 and 4 included none or very few of these descriptions.

Next, compare the sectional times of these dogs (in the formline it will show the time it took for the dog to race from the traps to the winning line first time round). If Trap 3 has been given the favourable comments described above, you’d expect his sectionals to be quick relative to other dogs in the race. In particular, they should be quicker, on average, than the dogs on either side of him.

Finally, in his formlines, check Trap 3’s position at the first bend. In the majority of his recent runs you would hope to see that he was either leading or in second place.

Below is a breakdown of the last 50 races that I’ve analysed with a view to having a bet. I have extracted my comments on Trap 3’s running style.

Trap 3: running style (4 bend graded races; winners in bold)

Abbreviations:

m: middle; m-r: middle to rails; m-w: middle to wide; qu aw: quick away; sl-av tr: slow to average traps; incons tr: inconsistent traps; ep: early pace; mp: middle pace; ls: late speed; stays: has won over 6 bends; has been sprinting: has won over 2 bends.

1. m; ep 2. m; ep; mp 3. m; ep; mp 4. m or m-w; can be qu aw; ep 5. m or m-r; ep

6. m; can be qu aw; ep 7. m; ep 8. m; ep 9. m; ep 10. m; ep; mp 11. m-r or m;

mp; ls; has been sprinting 12. m; mp; ls 13. m or m-r; ep 14. m; qu aw; ep 15. m-r

or m; ep 16. m or m-r; incons tr; ep 17. m-r or m; incons tr; ep; ls 18. m; can be

qu aw; ep; has been sprinting 19. m; can show ep; mp; ls 20. m; sl-av tr; ls;

21. m; can be qu aw; ep 22. m; sl-av tr; ep 23. m; ep 24. m; mp; ls; stays 25. m-r

or m; ep 26. m; sl-av tr; ls 27. m; qu aw; ep 28. m-r or m; mp; ls; has been

sprinting 29. m; can be qu aw; ep 30. m; can be qu aw; mp 31. m; sl-av tr; ls 32.

m-r or m; mp; ls; has been sprinting 33. r, m-r or m; incons tr; can show ep; mp; ls

34. m; sl-av tr; mp 35. m-r or m; ep 36. m; ep 37. m; mp; ls 38. m; ls 39. m or m-

r; ep 40. m; mp; ls; stays 41. m; can show ep; mp; ls; stays 42. m; sl-av tr; mp; ls

43. m-r or m; ls 44. m; mp; ls 45. m-r or m; mp; ls 46. m; mp 47. m-r or m; mp; ls

48. m; mp 49. m; sl-av tr; ep; mp 50. m; sl-av tr; ep; mp

The interesting points to arise from this are:

1. Thirty of the fifty Trap 3 runners had the comment ‘early pace’ in their profiles.

2. Of the nine winners, eight had the comment ‘early pace’.

3. As regards trapping ability, eight of the fifty were ‘slow to average’; another three were ‘inconsistent’, meaning that they were sometimes quick away, and sometimes slow away. Eight were either ‘quick away’ or, if not consistently so, described as ‘can be quick away’. The rest were of average trapping ability. Only one of the winners was ‘slow to average’.

4. Forty of the fifty preferred only a middle line; nine were able to run either middle or middle to rails; one could run either middle or middle to wide; one (versatile!) dog was happy to run middle, middle to rails or rails.

May 2018
Focus On Monmore Green
 
April 2018
Focus On Hove
 
March 2018
Focus On Doncaster
 
February 2018
Focus On Crayford
 
January 2018
Focus On Central Park
 
December 2017
An Index Of Previous Blog Posts
 
November 2017
Focus On Belle Vue
 
October 2017
Young Graders To Follow (2)
 
September 2017
Young Graders To Follow
 
August 2017
Getting A Clear Run
 
July 2017
Essential Tools For Greyhound Betting (2)
 
June 2017
Essential Tools For Greyhound Betting (1)
 
May 2017
Specialisation (2)
 
April 2017
Specialisation (1)
 
March 2017
Qualities Of The Successful Backer
 
February 2017
Compiling Race Ratings (2)
 
January 2017
Compiling Race Ratings (1)
 
December 2016
Racecard Comments : S - X
 
November 2016
Racecard Comments : M - R
 
October 2016
Racecard Comments : H - M
 
September 2016
Racecard Comments : H
 
August 2016
Racecard Comments : E - H
 
July 2016
Racecard Comments : B - D
 
June 2016
Racecard Comments : A - B
 
May 2016
Form Cycles
 
April 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (3)
 
March 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (2)
 
February 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (1)
 
January 2016
The Striped jacket
 
December 2015
The Orange jacket
 
November 2015
The Black jacket
 
October 2015
The White jacket
 
September 2015
The Blue jacket
 
August 2015
The Red jacket
 
July 2015
Upgraded Dogs To Avoid
 
June 2015
Upgraded Dogs
 
May 2015
Downgraded Dogs
 
April 2015
Focus on Romford
 
March 2015
Focus on Swindon (2)
 
February 2015
Focus on Swindon (1)
 
January 2015
Exploiting Formline Comments (2)
 
December 2014
Exploiting Formline Comments (1)
 
November 2014
Greyhound Racing: Make It Pay (2)
 
October 2014
Greyhound Racing: Make It Pay (1)
 
September 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (6)
 
August 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (5)
 
July 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (4)
 
June 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (3)
 
May 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (2)
 
April 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (1)
 
March 2014
The Time Test
 
February 2014
Recording and Reviewing Your Bets
 
January 2014
What’s a "grade within a grade"? (2)
 
December 2013
What’s a "grade within a grade"? (1)
 
November 2013
Trap Draw
 
October 2013
Sires To Note
 
September 2013
Racing Post Summaries (3)
 
August 2013
Racing Post Summaries (2)
 
July 2013
Racing Post Summaries (1)
 
June 2013
Laying Greyhounds On The Betting Exchanges
 
May 2013
Spotting The Ungenuine Dog
 
April 2013
Compiling A List Of Greyhounds To Follow
 
March 2013
Specialisation (2)
 
February 2013
Specialisation (1)
 
January 2013
Winter Ground Conditions
 
December 2012
Front Runners v Strong Finishers
 
November 2012
Weight
 
October 2012
Identifying Improving Greyhounds
 
September 2012
Race Ratings (2)
 
August 2012
Race Ratings (1)
 
July 2012
Following dogs in form
 
June 2012
Adopting a professional approach (3)
 
May 2012
Adopting a professional approach (2)
 
April 2012
A Greyhound's Win / Lose Ratio
 
March 2012
Adopting a professional approach (1)
 
February 2012
Warning To Speed Fans
 
January 2012
Following Bitches After Seasonal Rest
 
December 2011
Early Paced Dogs
 
November 2011
Speed Handicapping (5) : More FAQs
 
October 2011
Speed Handicapping (4) : FAQs
 
September 2011
Speed Handicapping (3)
 
August 2011
Speed Handicapping (2)
 
July 2011
Speed Handicapping (1)
 
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