Compiling Race Ratings (2)

Last month we discussed ways to compile a rating for each greyhound in a graded race. Firstly we considered the possibility of awarding points, up to a maximum of five, based on a dog’s recent form. Our hypothetical race ratings looked like this:

Trap 1 (downgraded, out of form): 0 pts.

Trap 2 (recent winner in same grade): 5 pts.

Trap 3: (recent winner in lower grade): 3 pts.

Trap 4: (downgraded, in reasonable form): 3 pts.

Trap 5: (running moderately in same grade): 1 pt.

Trap 6: (second placing in same grade): 4 pts.

Taking the ratings a step further, we decided to allocate points, again up to a maximum of five, according to the suitability of each dog’s trap draw. The crucial factor was previous success when running from the current trap; the better the win percentage from that trap, the more points awarded. The wins to runs ratio is in brackets.

Trap 1: (2-6) 4pts.

Trap 2: (1-5) 2pts.

Trap 3: (3-20) 1pt.

Trap 4: (1-3) 2pts.

Trap 5: (0-5) 0pts.

Trap 6: (4-8) 5pts.

We then combined the two sets of points to give an overall rating, so far, for each dog:

Trap 1 (0 + 4): 4pts; Trap 2 (5 + 2): 7 pts; Trap 3 (3 + 1): 4 pts; Trap 4 (3 + 2): 5 pts;

Trap 5 (1 + 0): 1 pt; Trap 6 (4 + 5): 9 pts.

Depending upon how simple we wish to keep the ratings (and over-complicating matters is rarely a good idea), we could stop at stage 1 (recent form) or at stage 2 (recent form and trap draw). However I think we could go one stage further without getting entangled in a mass of unnecessary statistics. Since sheer speed is the hallmark of the racing greyhound, an assessment of a dog’s ability measured against the clock can only enhance the accuracy of its rating. We can look at a dog’s recent finishing times and compare them to those of the other dogs in the race. My own preference would be to consider only those times recorded in the last four weeks, but others might disagree. I wouldn’t include times recorded in trials, unless the dog in question had been off the track for some reason and there were no recent race times to use.

As to the allocation of points, this would again be for the individual to decide, and might be a matter of trial and error, depending upon results. Two approaches can be considered. Keeping it simple, the dog with the fastest recent time is awarded five points, the second fastest, four points, and so on. Here points are awarded irrespective of the grade in which the time was recorded, or whether it was in a trial or an actual race.

The second approach is to base the number of points awarded on the perceived quality of the time performance. Here’s a possible way of allocating:

Fastest time, recorded in same grade as current race, or in a higher grade: 5 pts.

Second fastest time, recorded in same or higher grade: 4 pts.

Third fastest time, recorded in same or higher grade: 3pts.

Fastest time, recorded in a lower grade than current race: 3 pts.

Fastest time, recorded in a trial: 2 pts.

Fourth or fifth fastest time, recorded in same or higher grade: 1pt.

All other times: 0pts.

Below are the recorded times of the dogs in our hypothetical race:

Trap 1: 30.06 secs; Trap 2: 29.77 secs; Trap 3: 29.72 secs; Trap 4: 29.94 secs; Trap 5: 30.01 secs; Trap 6: 29.81 secs.

Employing the first, simpler approach, points would be awarded on the basis of these times as follows:

Trap 1: 0 pts; Trap 2: 4 pts; Trap 3: 5 pts; Trap 4: 2 pts; Trap 5: 1 pt; Trap 6: 3pts.

By adding these points to the stage 1 and stage 2 ratings, we arrive at a final rating for each dog:

Trap1 (0 + 4+ 0): 4pts; Trap 2 (5 + 2 + 4): 11 pts; Trap 3 (3 + 1 + 5): 9 pts; Trap 4 (3 + 2 + 2): 7 pts; Trap 5 (1 + 0 + 1): 2 pts; Trap 6 (4 + 5 + 3): 12 pts.

So these ratings suggest a close race between Traps 6 and 2, with the dog in the striped jacket just edging it.

September 2018
Focus On Poole
 
August 2018
Focus On Perry Barr
 
July 2018
Focus On Nottingham
 
June 2018
Focus On Newcastle
 
May 2018
Focus On Monmore Green
 
April 2018
Focus On Hove
 
March 2018
Focus On Doncaster
 
February 2018
Focus On Crayford
 
January 2018
Focus On Central Park
 
December 2017
An Index Of Previous Blog Posts
 
November 2017
Focus On Belle Vue
 
October 2017
Young Graders To Follow (2)
 
September 2017
Young Graders To Follow
 
August 2017
Getting A Clear Run
 
July 2017
Essential Tools For Greyhound Betting (2)
 
June 2017
Essential Tools For Greyhound Betting (1)
 
May 2017
Specialisation (2)
 
April 2017
Specialisation (1)
 
March 2017
Qualities Of The Successful Backer
 
February 2017
Compiling Race Ratings (2)
 
January 2017
Compiling Race Ratings (1)
 
December 2016
Racecard Comments : S - X
 
November 2016
Racecard Comments : M - R
 
October 2016
Racecard Comments : H - M
 
September 2016
Racecard Comments : H
 
August 2016
Racecard Comments : E - H
 
July 2016
Racecard Comments : B - D
 
June 2016
Racecard Comments : A - B
 
May 2016
Form Cycles
 
April 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (3)
 
March 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (2)
 
February 2016
Keeping An Online Formbook (1)
 
January 2016
The Striped jacket
 
December 2015
The Orange jacket
 
November 2015
The Black jacket
 
October 2015
The White jacket
 
September 2015
The Blue jacket
 
August 2015
The Red jacket
 
July 2015
Upgraded Dogs To Avoid
 
June 2015
Upgraded Dogs
 
May 2015
Downgraded Dogs
 
April 2015
Focus on Romford
 
March 2015
Focus on Swindon (2)
 
February 2015
Focus on Swindon (1)
 
January 2015
Exploiting Formline Comments (2)
 
December 2014
Exploiting Formline Comments (1)
 
November 2014
Greyhound Racing: Make It Pay (2)
 
October 2014
Greyhound Racing: Make It Pay (1)
 
September 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (6)
 
August 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (5)
 
July 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (4)
 
June 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (3)
 
May 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (2)
 
April 2014
Greyhound Betting Expert Advice (1)
 
March 2014
The Time Test
 
February 2014
Recording and Reviewing Your Bets
 
January 2014
What’s a "grade within a grade"? (2)
 
December 2013
What’s a "grade within a grade"? (1)
 
November 2013
Trap Draw
 
October 2013
Sires To Note
 
September 2013
Racing Post Summaries (3)
 
August 2013
Racing Post Summaries (2)
 
July 2013
Racing Post Summaries (1)
 
June 2013
Laying Greyhounds On The Betting Exchanges
 
May 2013
Spotting The Ungenuine Dog
 
April 2013
Compiling A List Of Greyhounds To Follow
 
March 2013
Specialisation (2)
 
February 2013
Specialisation (1)
 
January 2013
Winter Ground Conditions
 
December 2012
Front Runners v Strong Finishers
 
November 2012
Weight
 
October 2012
Identifying Improving Greyhounds
 
September 2012
Race Ratings (2)
 
August 2012
Race Ratings (1)
 
July 2012
Following dogs in form
 
June 2012
Adopting a professional approach (3)
 
May 2012
Adopting a professional approach (2)
 
April 2012
A Greyhound's Win / Lose Ratio
 
March 2012
Adopting a professional approach (1)
 
February 2012
Warning To Speed Fans
 
January 2012
Following Bitches After Seasonal Rest
 
December 2011
Early Paced Dogs
 
November 2011
Speed Handicapping (5) : More FAQs
 
October 2011
Speed Handicapping (4) : FAQs
 
September 2011
Speed Handicapping (3)
 
August 2011
Speed Handicapping (2)
 
July 2011
Speed Handicapping (1)
 
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